IEA Report Considers Possibility Of 'Global Energy Revolution'
Written by NucNet
Monday, 09 June 2008
NucNet News No. 43
9 Jun (NucNet): Thirty-two gigawatts of nuclear generating capacity would be
added each year between 2010 and 2050 under a "technology revolution"
scenario included in the OECD International Energy Agency's latest study* on
energy technology perspectives, released on 6 June 2008.
The increased nuclear capacity is a key element of the scenario, which is aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050.
Meeting the target would represent "a formidable challenge" that would require immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale, the IEA said. Nobuo Tanaka, the agency's executive director, said to meet the target the world would need "a virtual decarbonisation of the power sector".
Mr Tanaka said: "It (meeting the target) will essentially require a new global energy revolution which would completely transform the way we produce and use energy."
The study is built around three sets of global energy technology scenarios. These are a 'Baseline' (business-as-usual scenario), a range of 'Act' scenarios showing how CO2 emissions could be brought back to current levels by 2050, and a set of 'Blue' scenarios outlining how they could be reduced to 50 percent below current levels.
Mr Tanaka said CO2 capture and storage, renewables, nuclear energy and energy efficiency would all have to play a much more important role if the 50 percent target were to be met.
If governments around the world continue with policies in place to date CO2 emissions will rise by 130 percent and oil demand will rise by 70 percent until 2050.
Given the growing demand for electricity, meeting the 50 percent target would mean that on average per year 35 coal and 20 gas-fired power plants would have to be fitted with CO2 capture and storage technology, between 2010 and 2050 at a cost of 1.5 billion US dollars (95 million euro) each.
"Furthermore, we would have to build an additional 32 new nuclear plants each year and wind capacity would have to increase by approximately 17,500 turbines each year," Mr Tanaka said.
Many other issues would need to be overcome, such as the NIMBY-attitude (not in my backyard), the need to boost the numbers of engineering and technical graduates, and to resolve questions on the availability of sufficient geological formations for captured CO2 or geologically stable sites for nuclear reactors or radioactive waste storage.
