IAEA Sees Nuclear Continuing As 'Major Energy Source'
Written by NucNet
Wednesday, 24 October 2007
NucNet News No. 229
24 Oct (NucNet): Nuclear energy's prominence as a major energy source
will continue over the next several decades, with output growing from
370 gigawatts (GW) in 2006 to as much as 679 GW in 2030, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said.
In its latest annual assessment of nuclear energy released on 23 October 2007, the Vienna-based agency said output would grow to either 447 GW or 679 GW, the low and high projections, respectively.
The low projection assumes that all nuclear capacity under construction or "firmly in the development pipeline" gets completed and attached to the grid, but no other capacity is added.
The high projection adds additional "reasonable and promising projects and plans". If global nuclear capacity were to rise to 679 GW in 2030, that would be an average growth rate of about 2.5 percent a year.
The IAEA said as of the end of 2006, there were 435 operating nuclear reactors around the world, and 29 more were under construction. The US had the most with 103 operating units. France was next with 59. Japan followed with 55, plus one more under construction, and Russia had 31 operating, and seven more under construction.
Of the 30 countries with nuclear power, the percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear ranged widely: from a high of 78 percent in France; to 54 percent in Belgium; 39 percent in South Korea; 37 percent in Switzerland; 30 percent in Japan; 19 percent in the US; 16 percent in Russia; four percent in South Africa; and two percent in China.
Nuclear energy growth is centred on Asia, said the IAEA. Fifteen of the 29 units under construction at the end of 2006 were in Asia and 26 of the last 36 reactors to have been connected to the grid were in Asia.
India gets less than three percent of its electricity from nuclear, but at the end of 2006 it had one-quarter of the nuclear construction - seven of the world's 29 reactors that were under construction. India's plans are even more impressive: an eight-fold increase in nuclear generating capacity by 2022 to 10 percent of the electricity supply and a 75-fold increase by 2052 to reach 26 percent of the electricity supply.
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