a) because of the unexpectedly rapid rundown of North Sea gas, a lack of storage capacity and the determination of our so-called European partners to look after themselves at our expense by keeping the cross-Channel interconnector under-used, we have had several alerts of impending gas shortage over recent months, the last at the week-end. This in turn threatens electricity supplies because 40% of our electricity is generated by gas. Living on a knife edge in cold weather is likely to persist for another two winters at least;

b) longer term, the Institution of Civil Engineers has forecast the near-certainty of blackouts by 2020 if we continue to rundown coal and nuclear generation which between them produce more than half of our electricity. We could well lose 20% of that generating capacity by 2020. And the Government hasn’t a clue how to fill the gap, apart from burning more and more gas at higher and higher prices – mostly imported from unstable countries like Russia, those in the Middle East, Algeria and Nigeria.  Would you rely on that lot to keep the home fires burning after President Putin’s use of gas as a political weapon and Nigerian rebels driving Shell out of the Niger delta? Of course not. But current policy envisages us importing 80-90% of our energy requirements in the form of gas. This is pure madness.

c) Ah, but you may say, the Government does know how to fill the gap  - with renewables, energy conservation and gas. And I say that if you believe that you either live in Alice’s wonderland, are peculiarly dotty – nutty as a fruitcake – or can’t add up. Renewables currently supply at most 4% of our electricity of which most of it is fully-developed hydro. After 15 years’ development and increasing difficulty with people who do not want their property values slashed by wind farms, wind – the only renewable generating commercial amounts of electricity – generates only 0.5%. The rest – tides, waves, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels, CHP and photo-voltaics – don’t add up to a row of beans. Nor are they likely to in the foreseeable future. Ten per cent of electricity from renewables by 2010 is a pipedream – and a dangerous pipedream. You can’t build a viable energy policy on hope.

d) Ah, but what about energy conservation? Well, as one who from 1978-9 was responsible for energy conservation policy (and renewables) in the Department of Energy, I can confirm its potential is massive. I can equally confirm that, outside crises, its potential is massively elusive. Otherwise, electricity demand would not be rising by 1-1.5% a year. Don’t expect much from energy conservation – and certainly not without a high profile campaign. 

e) So, there you are: as things stand, we face short, medium and long term energy shortages and a loss of competitiveness. And, of course, CO2 emissions are rising and have been for four years. Never, within three years, have we seen such a comprehensive failure of policy since Ted Heath’s Industrial relations Act of 1971.