Report Shows ‘Modest Growth’ For Nuclear Until 2030
Written by NucNet
Friday, 20 January 2012
Nuclear output in OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries will be restored to pre-Fukushima levels by 2020, but thereafter will show only modest growth, according to a new report from energy company BP.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 report says that in non-OECD growth will be more evenly split between renewables, nuclear and hydro, as rapidly growing economies call on all available sources of energy supply.
Nuclear output grows rapidly, averaging 7.8 percent a year from 2010 to 2030, as China, India and Russia pursue ambitious expansion programmes, the report says.
Over the next decade coal is still the largest contributor to the growth of power fuels, accounting for 39 percent, but non-fossil fuels are rapidly catching up. In aggregate nuclear, hydro and other renewables contribute as much as coal.
“Nuclear prospects have been revised down after Fukushima and the resulting policy changes in Japan and Europe,” BP said.
Biofuels growth, while still very robust, has been reduced due to more modest expectations of penetration of next generation fuels.
Renewables in power generation have been revised higher due to improved prospects for cost reductions. They also play a part in replacing the lost nuclear output in Japan and Europe.
The report concludes that global energy demand will continue to grow over the next twenty years, albeit at a slowing annual rate, fuelled by economic and population growth in non-OECD countries.
