UK Regulator Issues Warning On Retirement Of Nuclear Plants
Written by NucNet
Friday, 09 October 2009
The UK might have to invest 200 billion pounds (GBP) (319 billion US dollars, 217 billion euro) over the next 10 to 15 years to secure energy supplies and meet carbon targets, partly because of the retirement of some of the countrys older nuclear plants.
The countrys gas and electricity regulator Ofgem says in a report released today that retirements of older nuclear plants and closures of coal and oil plants by the end of 2015 under European environmental legislation could pose a threat to security of supply.
The report says high levels of investment are likely to be needed up to GBP 200 billion by 2020 which would mean more than doubling the recen= t rate of investment.
The report presents four energy scenarios for the next decade and beyond. Each scenario shows that energy supplies can be maintained, but the analysis exposes real risks to supplies, potential price rises and varying carbon impacts. The UKs security of supply could face a number= of stress tests such as a repeat of the Ukraine-Russia dispute or if Asia corners the liquefied natural gas market.
In one scenario new nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects come online before 2020. In another, planning and supply chain constraints prevent new nuclear units becoming operational before 2020. In a third slow growth scenario there is limited inves= tment in new nuclear with the focus shifting to obtaining life extensions for existing nuclear assets.
Consumer bills rise in all scenarios due to the levels of new investment required and increasing costs of carbon, and especially so if oil and gas spot prices spike sharply or continue their underlying rise since 2003. In one scenario domestic consumer bills increase by more than 60 percent by 2016.
In a strategy document published in July, the UK government said construction of the first new nuclear power plants is expected to be under way by 2013 and new plants could be operational by 2018.
