We use more oil than we find, and if producers are fixing their figures the end could be closer than thought.
Predicting the end of
the age of oil can be a sticky business. The Association for the Study
of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo), a collection of industry figures,
politicians and academics, this week held its annual meeting at the
Gulbenkian Museum in Lisbon.
From
quiet beginnings three years ago, Aspo is no longer just "bubbling
under" in being taken seriously. Delegates had to squeeze past no fewer
than 10 documentary crews, a nest of television cameras and a phalanx
of reporters just to grab their seat in the packed auditorium.
Rather than talking
about when oil could "run out", Aspo prefers to predict that global
production may be at, or approaching, its height. The world is using
more oil than it finds, and discoveries of oil fields peaked in the
1960s. Despite technological advances since then, new field discoveries
are at an all-time low. This, said delegates, has led to the current
lack of any "cushion" between supply and demand, and to the consequent
high prices. The outcome for the world, if Aspo is correct, is
catastrophic.
Central
to the organisation is the work of Colin Campbell, a geologist and
former executive vice-president of oil giant Total. Making the
meeting's keynote speech, Campbell talked about the "dawn of the end of
the age of oil" and the "end of economics".
Underpinning
all of Campbell's, and Aspo's, work is the lack of transparency in the
world's oil data. Campbell drew attention to the way in which members
of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) "revised"
their reserve figures in the 1980s, and said that it is incredible that
this "flawed data" is still being used today. He highlighted the
example of Kuwait, which scrubbed its previous figures in 1985.
Overnight, its reserves went from 64bn barrels to 92bn barrels. As Opec
allows production quotas tied to stated reserves, this allowed Kuwait
to pump more oil and immediately make a lot more money.
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Complete article The Guardian
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